Fundamental security trends in Asia Pacific are arguably more uncertain than at any time since the end of the cold war. Although the region is recovering from the financial crisis of 1997–1998, other developments make the outlook for the new millennium increasingly unpredictable. Sources of instability include continued volatility on the Korean peninsula, maneuvering over territorial claims in the South China Sea, regional unrest in Indonesia, and renewed conflict between nuclearized India and Pakistan. More fundamental questions concern the US role in the region, China’s position and policies, and the key relationship between these two powers. These issues and their implications are explored in this edition of the Asia Pacific Security Outlook.

The Outlook assesses national perceptions of regional security, defense issues, and the contributions to regional and global security of eighteen member countries of the ASEAN Regional Forum; the 2000 edition includes Brunei Darussalam and Cambodia for the first time. The Outlook series draws on the expertise of a multinational team of security specialists, whose country reports enable the reader to compare the views of each state on current trends.

The Outlook is written for general audiences and security experts alike. The regional overview that opens the book distills the contributors’ perceptions of Asia Pacific security issues, as gleaned from their responses to a yearly survey on regional security. The watch list issues discussed in the overview include large power relations, the Korean peninsula, territorial disputes, and weapons procurement. From the 1998 edition, the Asian financial crisis was added to the list, and the 2000 edition added Indonesia. The 2000 edition also notes two positive elements in the security outlook: the recovery from economic crisis and a more realistic understanding of the promise of regional cooperation.